The Future of Change

I suspect you have heard the idea that the future is VUCA – a military acronym coined after 9/11 for volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous.

VUCA change is nothing new

The reality is that the future has always been VUCA to some extent. There has always been change, disruption, technological advances, lies, deception, data-growth, increasing detail, and ambiguity. It is just that it is always increasing, and always has been. Yes there are step changes. Some of them caused by something as simple as either a dietary choice or failed laboratory protocol in China (is that ambiguous or uncertain?). Others being global conflict, barbaric hordes, revolutions, terrorism. Or wildcard election candidates. And these rapid changes alert us to its reality. But it is always there. And it is always increasing.

The future of change is changing. But one thing remains true, ever since Louis Pasteur coined the term in the 19th Century – “Chance favours the prepared mind”. But …

how do you prepare for such a future?

Sadly, some people advocate that “You can’t prepare, so just be ready to react!”. Unfortunately, that advice, whether adopted willingly or by force of circumstance, has led to situations where the demand for ‘reaction’ has become overwhelming. It has led to overload, stress, mental illness, increased pressure and disharmony. In extreme cases, as reflected in the picture below (extracted from a recent paper on stress in the workplace), it has led to varying levels of dysfunction, and failure.

Negative flows of stress in the work environment

However, wiser minds side with Pasteur.

more change requires a ‘higher level’ of thought

Some of these minds take apart the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, and propose the development of separate strategies to address each: Vision, understanding, clarity and agility. Or alternatively, as HBR proposed: Restructure; build in slack; experiment and invest in information

Others (such as futurist Bob Johansen in his book ‘Leaders make the future’) propose development of new leadership skillsets. Skills which enable leaders to: Gain broader empathy and insight; inspire clarity; generate better options; facilitate more effective outcomes; build deeper ownership; and invoke a controlling influence. In short, a prepared mind.

What these approaches to preparation have in common is that they take a meta-perspective. They lift the thinking up to a point where they can more clearly see the patterns rather than get swamped by the detail.

there needs to be time for ‘quality’ thinking

But such preparation does not come by accident. It takes time, space and effort. Time to grasp at least some of the complexity and ambiguity and its possible implications. Space to play with the potential volatility and uncertainty, and to explore creative possibilities within them. Effort to best ready their minds with the emerging insights from all of this. And to provide effective leadership in whatever emerges. Leadership from minds which has explored the territory, imagined the pitfalls, and recognises the viable paths through it. Leadership which leaks this insight and understanding into every choice they make. Every response they offer.

And the greater the levels of VUCA, the greater the time required, and the more important that our leadership is spending it. If you are already thinking this way, you are probably ahead of your competitors on change. And as a result, finding the time for such thinking is not an issue for you.

overcoming the ‘no time to think’ trap

But what do you do if you are just waking up to this idea? How do you cope if your current reality is that increasing VUCA is creating unreasonable levels of stress and workload? Where finding healthy chunks of time to think is almost impossible? Where many of the items on the picture above plays some part in your current reality?

There is an answer. The fact is you have to get ahead of the curve. And that is going to be painful and involve sacrifice. But, in the longer run, not as much pain and sacrifice as continuing along your current path. We believe that the solution lies in the work of Jim Collins, of ‘From Good to Great’ fame, around ‘catalytic mechanisms‘

The hard fact is we cannot beat VUCA, it will continue to outpace us. But the reality is that in many cases we don’t need to. We just need to stay ahead of ‘the competition’. So the question you need to ask yourself right now is: Are your leadership getting enough quality thinking time to win that race? Or are they too tied up in reacting? Quickly moving from one expedient activity to another, simply trying to keep the fires extinguished?

If there is any danger it might be the latter, now could be a good time to do some rethinking yourself. As part of that, why not talk to us about how the strategy engagement framework can help you better engage your team in this thinking.

10 new leadership skills for being effective in a rapidly changing business environment.

These have been extracted from Lee Say Keng’s review of Bob Johansen’s book ‘Leaders make the future’:

Maker Instinct: The ability to exploit your inner drive to build and grow things, as well as connect with others in the making.
Clarity: The ability to see through messes and contradictions to a future that others cannot see. Leaders are very clear about what they are making, but very flexible about how it gets made.
Dilemma Flipping: The ability to turn dilemmas – which, unlike problems, cannot be solved – into advantages and opportunities.
Immersive Learning Ability: The ability to immerse yourself in unfamiliar environments; to learn from them in a first-person way.
Bio-Empathy: The ability to see things from nature’s point of view; to understand, respect, and learn from nature’s patterns.
Constructive Depolarizing: The ability to calm tense situations where differences dominate and communication has broken down – and bring people from divergent cultures toward constructive engagement.
Quiet Transparency: The ability to be open and authentic about what matters to you – without advertising yourself.
Rapid Prototyping: The ability to create quick early versions of innovations, with the expectation that later success will require early failures.
Smart Mob Organizing: The ability to create, engage with, and nurture purposeful business or social change networks through intelligent use of electronic and other media.
Commons Creating: The ability to seed, nurture, and grow shared assets that can benefit other players – and sometimes allow competition at a higher level.