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Refining intuition - colourful head in glass orb courtesy Geralt via Pixabay

Refining Intuition – Making better, faster decisions in complex contexts

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Intuition is increasingly key to making fast effective decisions. But can we rely on it? Only if we refine its accuracy with better heuristics.

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Intuition and heuristics

Intuition is becoming more and more important as the world get more complex. And the time to respond gets ever shorter. It is increasingly difficult for rational decision making to take account of all the variables. Furthermore, those variables often change before the decision is complete.
As a result, we are finding more people relying on intuition. Or to be more specific, on heuristics. Basically, heuristics are mental shortcuts which embody the wisdom of our experience and insight. Some are conscious, like estimating the volume of a rubbish tip. But others may be less so – like deciding we have enough time to cross the road before a car reaches us. It is these less conscious heuristics that play a large part in our intuition.

The problem with heuristics

Sadly however, heuristics are not always helpful. As examples, consider unconscious bias, our tendencies to prejudice, our addictions to gambling, and other bad choices. By and large, these are often a result of our heuristics. A list of the ways in which heuristics have been shown to let us down is surprisingly long. The diagram below (courtesy of John Manoogian III and Buster Benson) reflects a lot of potentially flawed thinking (not by them, I hasten to add).
The problem arises when we use particular heuristics in situations, or in a manner, which is not suited to them. And since much of our use of heuristics is largely unconscious, this can become a serious problem. Particularly in business situations where we will be using them more and more.

Refining intuition – the need to improve heuristics

Conscious or unconscious, heuristics are a skill like any other. Poor outcomes are not a reason for abandoning these skills, they are a reason for developing them. And for creating an environment in which we can use them more effectively. So how do we do that? How do we set about refining our intuition?
As businesses face increasing levels of change, and local autonomy increases in order to cope with this, this question will naturally increase in importance. Businesses which find good solutions will aggregate better faster decisions, and will deliver better performance – and not just financially.

A current example of refining intuition

One solution is training. For example, many companies have greatly improved their ability to harness greater benefits from diversity through delivering unconscious bias training. In essence, helping people to take more conscious control of their stereotyping heuristic.
To be clear, stereotyping can be an extremely helpful heuristic. Specifically, it enables us to arrive at very fast and reasonably accurate predictions of how complex systems might respond to changing situations. However, it can be very unhelpful when we apply it unconsciously to people.
Heuristics themselves are not good, or bad, but our application of them can be. However, it is impractical to train people on every single heuristic (there are over 200 listed in Wikipedia). Therefore, businesses will need to find mechanisms by which people can better train themselves.

Collective participative decision making

Key to enabling this is a collective decision making culture. One in which heuristics become clearer, and their application more transparent. This enables people to develop implicit agreement on where and when to apply particular heuristics. Furthermore, it helps them to recalibrate their own use of them. And it is this recalibration that is key to refining our intuition.
To a large extent this is already happening as a result of a growing interest in autonomous teams supported by collaborative tools. As team members share perspectives on situations, their underlying heuristics become exposed. In this way people begin to learn together what works and what doesn’t. Thereby refining intuition together.
This naturally, almost effortlessly, helps to form cultural heuristics. In other words, patterns of thinking which are validated, proven and then collectively adopted and further disseminated.

How thinking tools become, and develop, cultural heuristics

Inspiring interaction and engagement through Exploration TemplatesCultural heuristics can also exist in the processes adopted to provide the context for this learning.
Shared decision making tools such as fishbones, SWOT, six thinking hats, business canvas, force-field analysis and many others are themselves a heuristic device. They are a means of collective learning, discovery, and problem-solving in situations where outcomes are necessarily uncertain.
But they have an added advantage of breaking down complex issues into their component parts. Thereby enabling greater clarity over each element of the decision. And thus providing a much more explicit understanding of what personal heuristics are in play, and reconciling their conclusions.

The role of meetings

Change grows ever faster, and our people become increasingly dependent on personal heuristics to make their decisions. Therefore, our need to help them to ensure that these are effective heuristics becomes more pressing. Rethinking our meeting and decision making processes is the best means we have to refining intuition.

Useful links

For more on cultural heuristics, take a look at our main article.
For meeting tools that act as cultural heuristics in their own right. And which also help to recalibrate personal heuristics, take a look at our tool selector.
To explore greater meeting participation as a basis of continuing heuristic readjustment, take a look at our main piece on agile collaboration.

Daily re-restructuring for agility? How adaptive structures maximise agile engagement.

Culture eats strategy for breakfast – but what sort of strategy are you feeding it?
Facilitating mental wellbeing – The power of adventure in keeping our minds fit & healthy.
Patterns of collaborative excellence – Rediscovering the lost wisdom of design.
Prescient emotional knowledge management – do you have what it takes?

Leading by Adventure

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What do the words: adventure, hope, inspiration, dreams, passion have in common? 

To me, they reflect a sense of what the spirit of leadership is about. They are aspects of leadership beyond the purely rational, methodical, and structural. They resonate with bits of ourselves that we do not entirely understand. Bits of ourselves that speak to who we are. They provide meaning and energy. They make us human in a world of machines. They reflect the spirit of our existence. They are, in the truest sense of the word, spiritual.

human in a world of machines

The problem is that, for many people, 'spirituality' (definition: the quality of being concerned with the human spirit or soul as opposed to material or physical things) has been marginalised, trivialised, and even subverted, by those who seek to see business solely in materialistic terms. For some, the words of the opening paragraph have little place amid their concerns for finance, throughput, and power.
Left right brain picture reflecting a sense of leading by adventure courtesy Tumisu via PixabayBut as the world gets more complex and uncertain, our material approaches are increasingly insufficient to function effectively. Numbers no longer reflect the whole picture, and we are seeing business increasingly embrace qualities that talk to the human spirit - inclusion, diversity, love, ecology, conscience. The result is a workplace which is more conducive to us being fully ourselves. Better versions of ourselves where we bring our highest potential to enable the highest potential in others.

and we will need that highest potential

Machines, robotics, and AI are continuously evolving - becoming capable of more and more of the routine in our work. As individuals, and organisations, we might plant our feet firmly on the ground until it gets taken away from beneath us. Metaphor for spirit of adventure - woman leaping under blue sky courtesy Mantas Hesthaven via PexelsOr we can embark on an adventure inside of ourselves, and access parts of us that machines can never replace. The quality of our spirit. A spirit that can face the complex and uncertain challenges of the future in a way that rationality and routine cannot.
But how?
Well, we are talking about adventure here. And all adventures begin with a choice - perhaps to explore a curiosity, or to step into new land. There is always something to stimulate the imagination, and pique the curiosity of 'What would happen if ...?'

Bringing more adventures into your meetings

Adventures are best undertaken together wherever possible. As a leader, how do you equip your people for adopting a more adventurous perspective? To what extent do your regular interactions with your team develop their skills of adventuring: Creativity; inclusivity; curiosity; compassion; ownership; courage?
We have been working on a number of resources to help leaders create a context which better engages their people. And to improve the nature of meetings and collaboration to enable that engagement to flourish.

A series of weekly adventures

Over a period of 50 weeks, we have also built up a library of 'What ifs'. Many of them can be checked out in minutes. But if those initial steps into a new land inspire your sense of what might be, they can transform into opportunity, experience, and ultimately a key to something new within you.
So why not stop by and take a look. We hope you will find something in our adventure emporium that you are curious to try – you will not be disappointed.

 

Arriving at your Virtual Meeting

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Normally, when we are faced with something new and unfamiliar, we tend to put a bit of extra time and concentration aside to make sure that we get it right. So we might imagine that we would be just a little bit more diligent in turning up for a virtual meeting than we are for a more familiar physical one.

It would make sense right? It’s different. There are more things to go wrong. We aren’t as skilled in them. There is a lot more that is hidden. And we know we hit problems.

And yet, paradoxically, the reverse is often true.

To explore this, let us start with our typical approach to a physical meeting, as shown in the table below:

Get there
Pick up the files you need & leave in time to get through the ‘doors’ to the meeting
Ready yourself
Get out the documents you need for the meeting, leave the rest in your briefcase and close the door.
Concentrate
Sit down and get comfortable. Be attentive, and try not to do anything to distract yourself or others from the meeting
Use the right tools
Make sure the room and any technology you bring will enable you to do what you need & that everyone can see each other.
Play your part
Attend in a way that respects other people’s time & investment in the meeting & which reflects well upon your professionalism.
Learn
Participate in a meeting review, and learn from any feedback you receive.

Based on this, we might imagine that we would adopt the parallel behaviours in the green column below for our attendance at a virtual meeting, but more commonly we find the behaviours in the red column.

Get there
Be ready to start ahead of time – log on, check the technology, and have everything you need to hand.
We log on at the last minute, often without enough time to get things working properly
Ready yourself
Shut down all possibilities of distraction or interruption – use a ‘do not disturb’ notice on door, close email, switch-off phone, other work-files closed or minimised 
Keep emails and media open in case anything happens. Look for meeting files when needed
Concentrate
Focus entirely on the meeting. Mute your microphone until you want to speak. Listen attentively and supportively, and show you are doing so – use encouraging non-verbals via webcam
Monitor emails, tweets & alerts when they come in. Access the meeting via mobile so we can move about doing other things
Use the right tools
Use the best technology: Ensure you have a reliable connection; wear a good headset; switch on your webcam. Train yourself in the full functionality of the software you are using, and use it fully.
Use minimum meeting software functionality and technology. Avoid anything we have to learn. Avoid showing our face if possible. 
Play your part
Be an exemplar, a role model to others, of what good participation and meeting behaviour means in regard to remote meetings. Call out poor behaviour gently but firmly in others.
Use meeting time to best advantage for our own priorities. Mentally dip in & out when it suits our purposes, particularly if off-camera. 
Learn
Ensure and support a time of reflection, feedback and learning at the end – to get still better next time
Get out of the meeting as soon as possible – its done, move on!

There is something wrong in our paradigm of Remote Meetings. We know that they are, and will become, increasingly important. We know that we suffer from the consequences of the red behaviours above – to the extent that those consequences have become a standing joke. And yet, something (a sense of eternal optimism, or a victimless crime, or that you cannot be seen, or that everyone else does it) means we think it is okay to continue this way.

Yes, it is true that there are issues, but we would experience far less of them if people took responsibility for ensuring they just took the same time to get themselves ready as they would have for a physical meeting, and adopted the same self-restraint within it. There are many things we can do to improve our use and benefit from virtual meetings, but if we just all did the basics, consistently, I believe we would surprise ourselves as to the outcome.

Lifelong learning vs subconscious sabotage – which wins?

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All of the studies that I have seen on the future of work tend to conclude that, at a people level, lifelong continuous learning is going to be the way things are. But how will that work in practice?
Continuous learning is hard. It is a constant reminder that we are ‘not as good as we could be’, and while that is ‘an obvious given’ at the intellectual level, it is a psychological minefield at the subconscious level, particularly in the context of relationships.
Deep down, most of us know only too well at least one childhood experience of social awkwardness: wanting someone to like us, fearful that they won’t, and afraid of the potential social consequences that may result – and it is an experience we are keen not to repeat. We have learned the importance of confidence in approaching relationships and networking, and we have developed narratives, stories that we tell ourselves, sometimes literally, to create the illusion of that confidence – often so well that we don’t even realise that we are doing it.
But the marketeers know better. We are a culture that spends billions on identity-centric advertising – from perfumes, to watches, to cars – practically every aspirational purchase we make is premised on identifying with a character, a mindset, an icon, an image that hopefully changes our identity narrative – how we see ourselves; what we tell ourselves about ourselves; how self-confident we are; and how we overcome those nagging insecurities we developed in the playgrounds of our childhoods.
It is not actually the learning that we struggle with. It is the data that reveals that we have learning to do that bothers us.
At a conscious level, we accept the evidence that we need data to improve things. But the fact is, when we say we like feedback, we actually mean we like positive feedback.
Most of us, in most situations, tend to see negative feedback as criticism, even as judgement, of us by others. If we look carefully at our initial reactions (which we are usually able to supress before we reveal them to others, even sometimes to ourselves) we will spot hints of resentment: Our minds quickly highlight any unfairness to ourselves; we will reach for justification; we will question the basis of the feedback.
If we are honest with ourselves we will see that our emotions are triggered, and that we are having a little difficulty in seeing the data purely objectively. Simple acceptance that “it is simply what has resulted in the mind of that person, for whatever reason, and that the information is helpful to us if we want the result to be different” is not at the forefront of our minds.
And while we believe that we accept the logic that feedback data is ‘good’ for us, is that really true?
Dan Gilbert and two colleagues undertook a large scale psychological study of over 7000 people aged from 18 to 68 and looked at their perceptions of how much their values and personality were likely to change in the next 10 years versus how much they had changed in the past 10. The result was that the expected future change was a small proportion of the perceived historic change. They labelled this phenomenon ‘The end of history illusion’.
Gilbert et al concluded that basically, subconsciously, we tend to see ourselves as ‘finished goods’. Sure, we will have a better job, a bigger house, a track record, but its still basically ‘us’ right? At our core, we are still pretty much the same person, right?
The problem is that, if we subconciously believe that we are ‘pretty much there’, if we have no real vision for how we want to grow and develop as a human being, particularly in respect of how we treat others, then what use is the data?
If the feedback is positive, it pretty much tells us what we already know. But if it is negative, well then it could easily be wrong, or subjective, or political, or not properly taking things into account, or ….
And if it is negative, it could possibly be used against us. And if we take too much notice of it it could damage our self-confidence, and we know how important that is! And we have invested a lot of money in over-priced kit (marketing, extensive TV advertising and celebrity endorsement do not come cheap) to prove it.
Please bear in mind that a lot of what I am talking about here doesn’t take place in our conscious minds. At a conscious level, we only see glimpses of what I have laid out. But our subconscious reflects that, frankly, there is not much to gain, and there could be a lot to lose.
Let’s face it, why would our subconscious risk damage to the relational confidence that we have worked so hard, and paid so much, to develop, for the small chance of improving something that doesn’t need improving? It wouldn’t! So it finds its own subconscious ways of postponing, and procrastinating, and forgetting, in order to protect itself, to protect us, from something that, deep down, it knows won’t turn out well for us.
But, whatever our subconscious might have us believe, continuous lifelong learning is coming. To all of us.
And the fact is – those of us who do it better will get: the better opportunities’; the glowing references; the plum roles; and the big bucks. And the fact is also, as history proves time and again, data will be key to ‘better’.
So how do we fix this?
We believe that there are two main options highlighted by the picture above.
The first is to accept the fundamental truth that we are all ‘wonderfully made’. The petty cruelties we experienced from each other as children do not change that reality. We are all inherently valuable. However, accepting this simple truth may only be possible through a significant amount of soul searching, and even some professional help.
But such help and introspection isn’t a bad thing. Everybody can benefit from a skilled counsellor, and it could be the most worthwhile investment that we make. Building a deep self-confidence in ourselves, and seeing ourselves as we really are (for me, as God sees us) can be a deeply enriching and freeing experience.
The second is to break the ‘end of history illusion’. Set ourselves ambitious targets – a vision for how we want to develop our personality, our values, our character.
An interesting feature of the process that Gilbert et al’s adopted in their research is that they asked the backward review of half the group and the forward forecast of the other half. Why? Because they did not want to cross-contaminate the forecast perspectives with insight into past progress – they wanted to understand what happens at a default subconscious level.
So as we think about our vision, perhaps we could think about how far we have already come, and extrapolate from there. Build our confidence through considering the extent to which we already learn and grow effortlessly, and then build ourselves an ambition that is worthy of the conscious, data-driven, intelligent focus we are going to bring to bear on ourselves.
Our lives are an adventure. To those of us who are willing to explore ourselves, and our interactions with our surroundings, there is a rich source of insight and discovery that has unlimited potential to surprise us. If we engage with it on that basis, and take to heart Eleanor Roosevelt’s advocation that ‘it is never to late to become the person we might have been’ then the data we receive becomes the scenery of our journey and the waymarkers on our progress.
And our attitude to the data we receive as we seek to learn and grow is key. People cannot judge us, they can only judge themselves. They are are not in a position to know all of the factors in what we have done, the choices we have made, the context in which we acted, our background, our assumptions, our resources.
They are only qualified to know the impact that resulted on them. Impact that is a combination of: our actions; and theirs; of the surroundings; of other people; and of a myriad of other factors many of which are not entirely in our control.
However they choose to phrase this feedback, no matter how high-handed it may appear, is not relevant to the data – the data is only pertinent in respect of the impact that they perceived on themselves. ‘That was a total waste of time, you are pretty hopeless at this!’ simply means ‘I don’t believe that impacted me at all’, albeit expressed by somebody most likely lacking in empathy and self awareness.
But the impact that they perceived upon themselves is pertinent because we intended some impact upon them, and because their perception is likely self-fulfilling. The extent to which our intended impact is fulfilled is useful information to us as we seek to learn, to consider other strategies and options that are open to us, and to experiment with their effectiveness in achieving our aims. And the more objective we can be in how we handle this data, the faster we will learn to deliver the impact we intend, and the more competitive our position in the workplaces of the future.
And the difference, for many of us, is a simple shift in understanding about ourselves, and about those around us.
In Culturistics we do not presume to offer any particular psychological expertise in this space, but we do offer LEGO® SERIOUS PLAY® workshops for teams and individuals, and we advocate Inspirometer for automating feedback data.
LEGO® SERIOUS PLAY® (or LSP for short) works at the level of narrative and metaphor, and enables people to work with their own subconscious, and to develop visions and growth goals to which their subconscious can relate. The result provides a context in which feedback has (the right sort of) value, and can be used constructively to accelerate our learning and self-development.
Inspirometer is a brilliantly simple personal feedback tool which measures the impact and value ad generated for people in your meetings. You can get a free version here.
For more information, please contact us.

The role of narrative in who we are

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Post intentionally hidden from search engines 15/12/2022 (covered in Clrgo.com)

 

It transpires that giving ourselves ‘a good talking to’ may be the best way to self-improvement after all – in a gentle way at least. 

I have been aware of the role of narrative (the stories we tell ourselves) in terms of what we believe about ourselves, but I have only recently come to realise the extent to which our internal dialogue not only shapes, but actually enables, our identity. 

It began in an incidental comment on Monday, when someone said to me that we witness our own experiences linguistically.

From there I went on to watch a video by Steven Hayes on ‘A liberated mind‘ where he defines the creation of words as being a social act, and describes how this moves our thinking forward and finally to an amazing podcast which I heard this morning called ‘The Power of Words‘ (downloadable as an mp3 file) which left me blessed and astounded – as it appears to have done for so many people before me. 

It appears that our personal grasp of language determines our ability to think conceptually, and that while we can process our experiences without language, we need language to think about how we process those experiences.

When we talk to ourselves, we are thinking, we are exploring, combining and reinterpreting concepts which enrich or apply our understanding, and enable us to add value to the situations around us. 

According to Charles Fernyhough, it transpires that language serves not only to communicate between minds, but also between different systems within a single mind.  In other words, if we want to improve much of what we do, and in particular how we relate to others (which is an increasingly large component of all our work) then we need to talk to ourselves. 

And it is that talking to ourselves which forms and supports our identity, as illustrated by the story of Jill Bolte Taylor – a neuro scientist who lost her sense of identity and definition of herself in relation to the external world when a blood clot rendered her speech centres ineffective. 

Up until this point, I have only thought of language as the outworking of our thinking, but this podcast and my experiences this week have drawn me to understand that, in many ways, it IS our thinking. 

But I wonder, as I also struggle to quell the voices in my head in order to better adopt mindfulness techniques and the sense of right-brain consciousness to which Jill Bolte Taylor refers, whether the adoption of words and language is also exclusive. That selecting words to express and shape our concepts also blocks us from aspects of our thinking which are outside our current definition of those words – but then again, at least having those words enables us to test that hypothesis and perhaps develop through it. 

Playing at work! Seriously?

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Post intentionally hidden from search engines 15/12/2022 (covered in Clrgo.com)

 

The toy, Lego, can provide surprising insights into you, your work and your relationships. 

Over the last two months I have been reading and listening to a lot of stuff about what makes us who we are, and the conclusion I am being drawn to is that, for most of us, we are not who we think we are. 

Our identity is tied up in stories; multiple stories which we tell ourselves; a flow of narrative which leads to and flows from the current moment, and to a large part determines how we feel about what we are doing right now. Those stories may be short or long, they may originate from us or from others, they may be in conflict or harmony, and most of the time we may not be fully aware of them. 

And some of them are the truth, and some of them are lies, and some of them are both in different circumstances. And we pick which ones we believe (not always consciously or consistently) and they determine not only our effectiveness, but also how we feel about our performance and our situation.

I say ‘not always consciously’ because a lot of this takes place in our subconscious. Most of what is going on in our heads is happening without us being in control of it, and yet it is making associations, feeding our attitudes, responding to cues, suggesting motives, and preparing us – all based on whatever narratives it is currently using.

But if we are not aware of this, how do we know that it is equipping us with the best narrative to do what we are wanting to do? The answer, for most of us, most of the time, is we don’t! And it isn’t! 

In many cases, particularly in respect of relationships with others (business or otherwise) we find ourselves all too easily doing, saying, and feeling things that are not particularly helpful to us or to them – particularly in tense or difficult situations. And as a result, opportunities, time and resource get wasted.

So how do we fix this?

Well first of all, this is not a quick fix – it takes time. But that time can be enjoyable, insightful, and empowering. And it can yield benefits right from the outset. 

Secondly, working on it is not like working on other things in our lives. Our subconscious is an alien space and it uses a different language to the ones we are used to speaking. 

As a result, working with the subconscious involves doing things that our conscious might deem as silly or weird – like playing with Lego. Seriously.

Lego (R) Serious Play (R) or LSP, for brevity and avoidance of the the legal symbols, was a technique developed at the Lego group in the mid-nineties and made open-source in 2010. It is designed to access the metaphors that operate in our subconscious, and enable us to better work together on a shared vision or enterprise. 

At an individual level, it enables people to see things in themselves that can surprise them; to unearth important facets of their narrative, and to work on them to bring about changes which can make us more effective, individually and together. It can surface metaphors that are important to us, and enable us to better examine them, and reassess their place (and their limits) in our story. 

Whether by LSP, or by means of other Therapies, if you are blessed enough to have the opportunity to work on your own subconscious. I encourage you to take it (or even seek it out). It is not just for those with mental health issues, it is also for those with mental health who want to retain it. 

The world is getting more and more complex, routine is being automated, things are moving ever faster, and relationships are increasingly key. Looking after our mental health so that it equips us with what we need to make the best of this emerging future is key, and I am increasingly convinced that a better grasp of our subconscious will enrich all our lives.  

In these days of data protection, when we can ask any organisation to reveal the picture it has of us, particularly where it might lead them to make decisions which are not in our interest, perhaps our most productive course of action could be to start within our own minds.